TREND ANALYSIS OF EVAPORATION AND SOLAR RADIATION USING INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS METHOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4314/jfas.v13i2.22Keywords:
Trend; climate change; evaporation; solar radiationAbstract
Analysis of trends in monthly evaporation and solar radiation in the face of climate change gives useful information for better planning and management of water resources. This paper examines the monthly evaporation and solar radiation trend using the recently developed innovative trend analysis method (ITAM). The monthly evaporation trend result shown that 75% of the months indicated decreasing trend with the month of February, March, August and April decreased significant at 0.1%, 10%, 10% and 5% significance level respectively. As regards solar radiation all the months indicated decreasing trend with January, July and October shown a decreasing trend at 5% significant level. By comparing the Mann-Kendall method with the ITAM the reliability of ITAM was ascertained. Hence, ITAM can be effectively utilized in climate change scenarios where useful information is needed for accurate management and planning of water resources.
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[37] Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Gong W. A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China, 19552000. J. Geophys. Res., 2004, 109, D15102.
[38] Ogunjobi K O, Kim Y J, Adedokun J A, Ryu S Y, Kim J E. Analysis of sky condition using solar radiation data at Kwangju and Seoul South Korea and Ile-Ife Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2002, 72, 265-272.
[2] Burn H D, Hag-Elnur A M. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 225, 107-122.
[3] Traore S, Luo Y, Fipps G. Deployment of artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of evapotranspiration using public weather forecast restricted messages. Agric. Water Management, 2015, 163, 363-379.
[4] Senteihas P, Gilespie T, Santos E. Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing dada in Southern Ontario, Canada. Agricultural water management, 2010, 97(5), 635-644.
[5] Oguntunde P G, Abiodun B J, Olukunle O J and Olufayo A A. Trends and variability in pan evaporation and other climatic variables at Ibadan, Nigeria, 19732008. Meteorol. Appl., 2012, 19, 464-472.
[6] Shirsath P B, Singh A K. A comparative study of daily pan evaporation estimation using ANN, regression and climate based models. Water Resour. Manage., 2010, 24(8), 15711581.
[7] Kisi Ozgur. An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 527, 1123-1129.
[8] Luo Y G, Traore S, Lyu X, Wang W, Wang Y, Xie Y, Jiao X, Fipps G. Medium range daily reference evapo-transpiration forecasting by using ANN and public weather forecasts. Water Resour. Manage., 2016, 29, 3863-3876.
[9] Pingale S M, Khare D, Jat M K, Adamowski J. Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atmos. Res., 2014, 138, 73-90.
[10] Westra S, Alexander L V, Zwiers F W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J. Clim., 2013, 26(11), 3904-3918.
[11] Wu H, Qian H. Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. Int. J. Climatol., 2017, 37, 2582-2592.
[12] Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M. Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (Southern Italy). Int. J. Climatol., 2011, 31(1): 44-56.
[13] Gocic M, Trajkovic S. Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 19802010. J. Hydrol., 2013, 494, 32-42.
[14] Gemmer M, Fischer T, Jiang T, Su B, Liu L L. Trends in precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China. J. Clim., 2011, 24(3), 750-761.
[15] Salami A W, Ikpee O D, Ibitoye A B, Oritola S F. Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables in the coastal area of Lagos. J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Management, 2016, 20 (3), 797-808.
[16] Patra J P, Mishra A, Singh R, Raghuwanshi N S. Detecting rainfall trends in twentieth century (18712006) over Orissa State, India. Clim. Change, 2012, 111, 801-817.
[17] Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A, Talaee P H, Mohammadi K. Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agric. For. Meteorol., 2011, 151(2), 128-136.
[18] Tabari H, Marofi S. Changes of pan evaporation in the West of Iran. Water Resour. Manage. 2010, 25(1), 97-111.
[19] Sen Z. Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. J. Hydrol. Eng., 2012, 17, 1042-1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556.
[20] Sen Z. Trend identification simulation and application. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2014, 19 (3), 635-642.
[21] Markus M, Demissie M, Short M B, Verma S, Cooke R A. Sensitivity Analysis of Annual Nitrate Loads and the Corresponding Trends in the Lower Illinois River. J. Hydrol. Eng., 2014, 19, 533-543.
[22] Ahmad I, Zhang F, Tayyab M, Anjum, M N, Zaman M, Liu J, Farid H U, Saddique Q. Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin. Atmos. Res., 2018, 213, 346-360.
[23] Cui L, Wang L, Lai Z, Tian Q, Liu W, Li J. Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze Riv-er basin, China during 1960-2015. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys., 2017, 164, 48-59.
[24] Ay M and Kisi O. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 2015, 120, 617-629.
[25] Güçlüa, Y S, Dabanlı I, Şişman E, Şen Z. Air quality (AQ) identification by innovative trend diagram and AQ index combinations in Istanbul megacity. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2018.
[26] Sangodoyin A Y. Wastewater applications: changes in soil properties, livestock response and crop yield. Environmental Management and Health, 1992, 3(1), 11-19.
[27] Zhou Z, Wang L, Lin A, Zhang M, Niu Z. Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during1962 2015. Renewable Energy, 2018, 119, 675-689.
[28] Salmi T M A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Ariola T, Amnell T. Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sens Slope Estimates. Publications on Air quality, 2002, No. 31. Helsinki, Finland.
[29] Oloruntade A J, Mogaji K O, Imoukhuede O B. Rainfall trends and variability over Onisha, Nigeria. Ruhuna Journal of Science, 2018, 9(2), 127-139.
[30] Shahid S, Harun S B, Katimon A. Changes in diurnal temperature range in Bangladesh during the time period 1961-2008. Atmos. Res., 2012, 118: 260-270.
[31] Khan M H R, Rahman A, Luo C, Kumar S, Islam G M A, Hossain M A. Detection of changes and trends in climatic variables in Bangladesh during 1988-2017. Heliyon, 2019, 5(3), e01268.
[32] Sang Y F, Wang Z G, Liu C M. Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. J. Hydrol., 2014, 510, 293-298.
[33] Şen Z. Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theor Appl Climatol., 2017, 127, 939-947.
[34] Grimenes A A, Thue-Hansen V. The reduction in south-eastern Norway during the last 50 years. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 2006, 85, 37- 40.
[35] Oguntunde P G, Friesen J, van de Giesen N, Savenije H H G. Hydro-climatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: trends and variability from 1901 to 2002. Phys. Chem. Earth, 2006, 31, 1180-1188.
[36] Stanhill G, Cohen S. Global dimming: A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2002, 107, 255-278.
[37] Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Gong W. A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China, 19552000. J. Geophys. Res., 2004, 109, D15102.
[38] Ogunjobi K O, Kim Y J, Adedokun J A, Ryu S Y, Kim J E. Analysis of sky condition using solar radiation data at Kwangju and Seoul South Korea and Ile-Ife Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2002, 72, 265-272.
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Published
2021-04-26
How to Cite
AHMED, M. O.; OGEDENGBE, K. TREND ANALYSIS OF EVAPORATION AND SOLAR RADIATION USING INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS METHOD. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, [S. l.], v. 13, n. 2, p. 1030–1055, 2021. DOI: 10.4314/jfas.v13i2.22. Disponível em: https://jfas.info/index.php/JFAS/article/view/1073. Acesso em: 30 jan. 2025.
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